Research
Working Papers
Safety in Numbers: The Impact of Mega Sports Events on Cycling Demand and Crash Severity
[Link to Full Paper]
This study examines the impact of Premier League football matches on bike-sharing demand and cyclist safety near stadiums in London. Using a difference-in-differences framework with high-frequency data from the Santander Cycle Hire (SCH) system, I find that bike-sharing demand increases by 19% at stations 0.5–1.0 km from stadiums on game days, with smaller increases extending out to 2.0 km. Simultaneously, the probability that a cyclist-involved crash is classified as “serious,” typically requiring hospitalization, decreases by 18.4% within 1.5 km of stadiums on game days. I find no change in the overall number of crashes occurring near stadiums on game days. These findings are consistent with the “safety in numbers” effect, where increased cyclist visibility encourages safer driving behavior. The crash results are robust to placebo tests and alternative distance bands, with back-of-the-envelope calculations suggesting societal cost savings of £2.18 million over the sample period due to reduced crash severity. These findings highlight a positive externality of mega-events: while often criticized for congestion and disruption, game days can improve safety for vulnerable road users, offering actionable insights for policymakers and urban planners.
Unintended Consequences of Public Transit Strikes on Health and Travel Behavior
[Link to Full Paper]
I exploit the timing of public transit strikes in London to demonstrate that strikes have public health costs in the context of cyclist safety. Using a novel dataset that records the geo-location of all known cyclist-involved crashes in London between 2005-2018, I show the first day of a public transit strike causes a 18.67% increase in the number of cyclist-involved crashes in boroughs where the city has implemented bike- sharing stations. This increase in crashes primarily operates through the mechanism of increased cycling demand on strike days, as public transit strikes in London cause temporary substitution to the city’s bike-sharing system when transit by metro rail is unavailable. In future work, I plan to show how strikes affect the severity of crashes and how crashes evolve over time following a transit strike.
Works in Progress
Job Market Outcomes for Undergraduate Economics
In this paper we set out to update the literature on labor market outcomes of undergraduate economics majors in the United States. Using 2014-2022 American Community Survey data on nearly four million individuals aged between 25 and 65 across all 50 states, we estimate the marginal effects of having three separate baccalaureate economics degrees—general, agricultural, and business—on wages and weeks worked per year. We find a positive, non-negligible, and statistically significant effect of having an economics degree on earnings after controlling for a large number of socio-economic individual- and state-level characteristics. The evidence is most robust for general (non-business and non-agricultural) economics majors. Alternatively, we find little evidence that having an economics major strongly affects quantity of labor supplied measures by weeks worked.
The Impact of Bike-share Integration on Public Transit Demand
Research question and data identified.
Retired Projects
Air Pollution in the Land of Blue Sky: Effects of Ulaanbaatar's Raw Coal Ban on Air Quality and Child Health
[Link to Full Paper]
On May 15, 2019 the Government of Mongolia implemented a ban on burning raw coal in the country’s capital city, Ulaanbaatar. This paper investigates the impact of Ulaanbaatar’s 2019 raw coal ban on air pollution and child health using city- and province-level data from the National Statistics Office of Mongolia. Results from an event study framework indicate the ban reduced particulate air pollution (PM10) by 20%, but had the unintended consequence of increasing sulfur dioxide air pollution (SO2) by 87%. Effects of the ban on SO2 air pollution are robust to various clustering techniques and are more pronounced during winter months. While a policy goal was to improve health outcomes for infants and children under five, there is little evidence the ban altered mortality rates among these groups. Correlational evidence suggests the increase in ambient SO2 pollution may have offset potential mortality reductions from the decrease in ambient PM10 pollution.
Letter Grading Government Corruption (co-authored with Dr. Bryan McCannon and Zach Porreca)
[Link to Full Paper]
We replicate and extend a seminal field study to differentiate inefficiency of publicly-provided services from government corruption. Envelopes were sent to fictitious businesses at nonexistent addresses across 159 countries. Whether the letter was returned is the outcome variable of interest. By randomly treating one-half of the envelopes by including money in them, we induce public sector theft. We first establish a causal average treatment effect. Envelopes with money are 4.5 percentage points less likely to be returned. We then consider four important dimensions argued to be related to government service efficiency. we show that public sector management quality and public sector employee's beliefs about willingness to serve citizens and follow the rules correlate with our measurement of corruption, but technology, other attitudes, and compensation do not.